De Graafschap vs NAC Breda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

De Graafschap
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-2)
NAC Breda
Kick-off 14:45 Stadium De Vijverberg

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

De Graafschap opened at -0.25 against NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.28
De Graafschap +0.28

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.58 / 1.88
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
De Graafschap -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.53
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.53 AH points more toward NAC Breda than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
NAC Breda +0.25
@ 1.75
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.53
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+10.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:40
Opening
-0.25
13:10
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.76 / 1.65 -0.25 2.73 / 1.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.91 / 1.70 -0.25 2.94 / 1.75 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.62 -0.25 2.85 / 1.70 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.82 / 1.65 -0.25 2.79 / 1.66 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 5.35
-1.75 8.10 3.92
-1.50 6.25 3.14
-1.25 5.84 2.87
-1.00 5.40 2.56
-0.75 3.84 2.10
-0.25 2.79 1.66
0 2.49 1.48
+0.25 2.00 1.39
+0.75 1.59 1.18
+1.00 1.40 1.09
+1.25 1.32 1.07
+1.50 1.27 1.06
+1.75 1.18 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.30
-1.25 6.00 2.85
-1.00 5.75 2.60
-0.75 4.00 2.15
-0.50 3.30 1.98
-0.25 2.85 1.70
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.10 1.40
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.68 1.23
+1.00 1.48 1.14
+1.25 1.40 1.12
+1.50 1.32 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 3.92
-1.50 6.25 3.14
-1.25 5.85 2.88
-1.00 5.40 2.56
-0.75 3.84 2.10
-0.25 2.73 1.66
0 2.49 1.48
+0.25 2.00 1.36
+0.75 1.59 1.18
+1.00 1.40 1.09
+1.25 1.32 1.07
+1.50 1.27 1.06
+1.75 1.18 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.31 1.98
-0.25 2.94 1.75
0 2.58 1.52
+0.25 2.12 1.41
+0.50 1.87 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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