MVV vs Roda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

MVV
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Roda
Kick-off 14:45 Stadium De Geusselt

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

MVV opened at -0.25 against Roda in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 9 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.39 / 1.43
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
MVV -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Roda than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
MVV -0.25
@ 2.72
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.39
Price Advantage
+13.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 9 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:43
Opening
-0.25
13:08
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 2.25 / 1.60 0 2.25 / 1.60 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.61 / 1.81 -0.25 2.52 / 1.83 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.79 / 1.88 -0.25 2.71 / 1.93 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 -0.25 2.68 / 1.95 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.67 / 1.81 -0.25 2.57 / 1.83 -0.25 0
Unibet -0.50 2.75 / 2.12 -0.50 2.75 / 2.12 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.70 / 1.90 -0.25 2.72 / 1.85 — 0
Superbet -0.50 3.05 / 2.07 -0.50 3.05 / 2.07 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.69 / 1.78 -0.25 2.51 / 1.86 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.25 1.60

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 4.74
-1.50 5.75 3.78
-1.25 5.34 3.42
-1.00 4.95 3.05
-0.75 3.54 2.41
-0.25 2.57 1.83
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.82 1.46
+0.75 1.45 1.22
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.23 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.12 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.25
-1.50 6.00 4.00
-1.25 5.75 3.55
-1.00 5.25 3.30
-0.75 3.70 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.68 1.95
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.85 1.45
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.26
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.27 1.14
+1.50 1.23 1.12
+1.75 1.16 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.51 1.86
0 2.16 1.59
+0.25 1.81 1.45

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.72 1.85
+0.25 1.93 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 4.75
-1.50 5.75 3.78
-1.25 5.35 3.42
-1.00 4.95 3.05
-0.75 3.54 2.42
-0.25 2.52 1.83
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.82 1.43
+0.75 1.45 1.22
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.23 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.12 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.89 2.59
-0.50 3.08 2.21
-0.25 2.71 1.93
0 2.31 1.64
+0.25 1.92 1.48
+0.50 1.69 1.38
+0.75 1.52 1.26

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 3.75
-0.50 3.05 2.07
+0.50 1.68 1.33
+1.50 1.23 1.10

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.75 2.12
+0.50 1.62 1.37
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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