FC Eindhoven vs MVV Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Eindhoven
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
MVV
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Jan Louwers Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Eindhoven opened at -0.50 against MVV in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward MVV from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
FC Eindhoven -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.40 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
FC Eindhoven -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 8 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward MVV than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
MVV +0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+54.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.50
13:31
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 1.94 / 4.40 -0.25 1.65 / 2.90 -0.25 +0.50
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.06 / 1.33 +1.50 1.06 / 1.33 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.82 / 3.65 -0.25 1.73 / 3.12 -0.25 +0.25
Bet365 -0.50 1.80 / 3.80 -0.50 1.80 / 3.80 — 0
1xBet -0.75 1.94 / 4.38 -0.25 1.71 / 2.85 -0.25 +0.50
Unibet +0.50 1.24 / 1.93 +0.50 1.24 / 1.93 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.26 / 1.90 +0.50 1.26 / 1.90 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.37 / 2.78 0 1.37 / 2.78 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 9.00
-1.50 3.34 6.80
-1.25 2.97 6.39
-1.00 2.66 5.90
-0.75 2.17 4.04
-0.25 1.71 2.85
0 1.48 2.51
+0.25 1.34 2.04
+0.75 1.16 1.56
+1.00 1.07 1.37
+1.25 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.38 7.00
-0.75 2.02 5.00
-0.50 1.80 3.80
-0.25 1.60 3.45
0 1.38 3.00
+0.25 1.30 2.30
+0.50 1.25 2.00
+0.75 1.17 1.78
+1.00 1.10 1.55

BetVictor Main —

AH Home Away
0 1.37 2.78

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.00 13.00
-1.50 3.00 7.50
+1.50 1.06 1.33

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.10 9.20
-1.50 3.28 7.00
-1.25 2.92 6.55
-1.00 2.59 6.10
-0.75 2.11 4.20
-0.25 1.65 2.90
0 1.45 2.61
+0.25 1.33 2.04
+0.75 1.16 1.59
+1.00 1.06 1.39
+1.25 1.05 1.31
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.73 3.12
0 1.48 2.70
+0.25 1.37 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.87

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.00 6.90
-0.50 1.80 3.50
+0.50 1.26 1.90
+1.50 1.07 1.34

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.85 6.50
-0.50 1.75 3.50
+0.50 1.24 1.93
+1.50 1.06 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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