AB Copenhagen vs Aarhus Fremad Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AB Copenhagen
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Aarhus Fremad
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Gladsaxe Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AB Copenhagen opened at -0.25 against Aarhus Fremad in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
AB Copenhagen -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Aarhus Fremad than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Aarhus Fremad +0.25
@ 2.87
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+68.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
12:58
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.62 -0.25 1.74 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.76 -0.25 1.85 / 2.87 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.65 -0.25 1.78 / 2.72 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 2.80 -0.25 1.87 / 2.65 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.55 / 2.25 0 1.53 / 2.29 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.55 8.60
-1.50 3.58 6.50
-1.25 3.22 6.07
-1.00 2.88 5.60
-0.75 2.31 3.87
-0.25 1.78 2.72
0 1.52 2.38
+0.25 1.38 1.94
+0.75 1.19 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.32
+1.25 1.07 1.27
+1.50 1.05 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 6.40
-1.25 3.45 6.00
-1.00 3.10 5.75
-0.75 2.42 3.90
-0.50 2.10 3.10
-0.25 1.85 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.95
+0.50 1.35 1.70
+0.75 1.24 1.52
+1.00 1.14 1.35
+1.25 1.12 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.25

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.53 2.29

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.65
+0.25 1.47 1.91

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.55 8.60
-1.50 3.58 6.50
-1.25 3.20 6.05
-1.00 2.88 5.60
-0.75 2.28 3.84
-0.25 1.74 2.69
0 1.52 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.90
+0.75 1.18 1.50
+1.00 1.08 1.32
+1.25 1.06 1.26
+1.50 1.05 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.48 4.15
-0.50 2.12 3.27
-0.25 1.85 2.87
0 1.57 2.45
+0.25 1.44 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.56
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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