HB Koge vs Hobro Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

HB Koge
Final Score
5 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Hobro
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Capelli Sport Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

HB Koge opened at 0 against Hobro in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
HB Koge 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward HB Koge than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:55
Opening
0
16:18
Last Pre-Match
0
16:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.73 / 2.01 0 1.86 / 1.86 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.78 / 2.04 0 1.93 / 1.92 0 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 +0.25
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.01 0 1.86 / 1.86 0 0
Betano -0.25 2.02 / 2.37 -0.25 2.25 / 2.18 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.67 / 2.04 0 1.84 / 1.82 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.80 9.60
-1.75 7.00 7.10
-1.50 5.25 5.25
-1.25 4.78 4.77
-1.00 4.25 4.30
-0.75 3.01 3.00
-0.25 2.18 2.16
0 1.86 1.86
+0.25 1.60 1.62
+0.75 1.31 1.32
+1.00 1.15 1.15
+1.25 1.12 1.12
+1.50 1.09 1.09
+1.75 1.04 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 7.00
-1.50 5.25 5.25
-1.25 4.65 4.65
-1.00 4.25 4.25
-0.75 3.10 3.10
-0.50 2.60 2.60
-0.25 2.25 2.25
0 1.92 1.88
+0.25 1.62 1.62
+0.50 1.48 1.48
+0.75 1.35 1.35
+1.00 1.21 1.21
+1.25 1.18 1.18
+1.50 1.16 1.16
+1.75 1.10 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.18 2.15
0 1.84 1.82
+0.25 1.60 1.58

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.50
-0.25 2.25 2.18
+0.25 1.65 1.62
+0.50 1.52 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 7.10
-1.50 5.25 5.25
-1.25 4.75 4.75
-1.00 4.25 4.30
-0.75 2.97 2.97
-0.25 2.13 2.13
0 1.86 1.86
+0.25 1.58 1.58
+0.75 1.30 1.30
+1.00 1.15 1.15
+1.25 1.12 1.12
+1.50 1.09 1.09
+1.75 1.04 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.53 4.34
-0.75 3.22 3.16
-0.50 2.63 2.60
-0.25 2.28 2.26
0 1.93 1.92
+0.25 1.67 1.66
+0.50 1.52 1.51
+0.75 1.37 1.36
+1.00 1.23 1.21
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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