Home United vs Công An Nhân Dân Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Home United
Oct 08, 2026 - 11:30
1.20 1.40
Công An Nhân Dân
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Home United opened at -0.25 against Công An Nhân Dân in the ASEAN Club Championship. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Công An Nhân Dân from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Home United +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Home United 0
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Công An Nhân Dân than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Công An Nhân Dân 0
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+7.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.49 0 1.83 / 1.83 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.99 / 2.86 0 1.88 / 1.90 — +0.50
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.98 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.49 0 1.83 / 1.83 — +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.78 / 2.73 0 1.88 / 1.79 — +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
xG 1.20 / 1.40 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Home United @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.29
Home United @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.29
Market price is 17.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.80 11.00
-2.00 9.00 9.00
-1.75 6.05 6.05
-1.50 4.70 4.70
-1.25 4.29 4.30
-1.00 3.85 3.85
-0.75 2.83 2.83
-0.25 2.09 2.07
0 1.83 1.83
+0.25 1.61 1.63
+0.75 1.33 1.33
+1.00 1.18 1.18
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.12 1.12
+1.75 1.06 1.06
+2.50 1.04 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.98 1.82

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.52 2.39
-0.25 2.21 2.10
0 1.88 1.79
+0.25 1.63 1.57
+0.50 1.49 1.44

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.00 9.00
-1.75 6.05 6.05
-1.50 4.70 4.70
-1.25 4.30 4.30
-1.00 3.85 3.85
-0.75 2.83 2.83
-0.25 2.07 2.07
0 1.83 1.83
+0.25 1.61 1.61
+0.75 1.33 1.33
+1.00 1.18 1.18
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.12 1.12
+1.75 1.06 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.81 2.85
-0.50 2.36 2.38
-0.25 2.13 2.15
0 1.88 1.90
+0.25 1.67 1.68
+0.50 1.53 1.54
+0.75 1.38 1.39
Primary Bets
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