Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Septemvri Sofia
Oct 11, 2026 - 12:00
1.23 1.37
Dunav Ruse
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Septemvri Sofia opened at -0.25 against Dunav Ruse in the First League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Septemvri Sofia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward Dunav Ruse than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dunav Ruse +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+68.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.55 -0.25 1.91 / 2.55 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.03 / 2.68 -0.25 2.03 / 2.68 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.65 -0.25 1.95 / 2.65 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.23 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Septemvri Sofia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
Septemvri Sofia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 2.59
Market price is 21.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 9.20
-1.50 4.65 6.85
-1.25 4.20 6.34
-1.00 3.72 5.80
-0.75 2.69 3.80
-0.25 1.95 2.55
0 1.62 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.77
+0.75 1.19 1.36
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 7.00
-1.25 3.80 6.60
-1.00 3.45 6.00
-0.75 2.60 4.00
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.23 1.48
+1.00 1.12 1.30
+1.25 1.11 1.25
+1.50 1.10 1.21

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.65
+0.25 1.47 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 9.20
-1.50 4.65 6.85
-1.25 4.20 6.35
-1.00 3.72 5.80
-0.75 2.69 3.80
-0.25 1.91 2.55
0 1.62 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.73
+0.75 1.19 1.36
+1.00 1.07 1.20
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.90 4.03
-0.50 2.39 3.13
-0.25 2.03 2.68
0 1.66 2.21
+0.25 1.46 1.79
+0.50 1.34 1.57
+0.75 1.23 1.40
Primary Bets
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