Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Levski Sofia
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:30 PST
0.81 0.94
Ludogorets
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Levski Sofia opened at -0.25 against Ludogorets in the First League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Levski Sofia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.36
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.36 AH points more toward Ludogorets than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ludogorets +0.25
@ 2.97
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.36
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+91.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.25 1.79 / 2.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.78 / 3.09 -0.25 1.82 / 2.97 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.71 / 3.00 -0.25 1.83 / 2.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 3.20 -0.25 1.88 / 2.87 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
xG 0.81 / 0.94 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.82
Levski Sofia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.80
Levski Sofia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.82 vs 2.80
Market price is 35.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 7.50
-1.25 3.72 6.94
-1.00 3.28 6.40
-0.75 2.43 4.10
-0.25 1.83 2.73
0 1.53 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.88
+0.75 1.16 1.44
+1.00 1.05 1.25
+1.25 1.04 1.20
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.55 7.00
-1.00 3.30 6.60
-0.75 2.42 4.25
-0.50 2.10 3.30
-0.25 1.82 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 1.98
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.52
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.10 1.27

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 3.30
-0.25 1.88 2.87
+0.25 1.44 1.95
+0.50 1.36 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.20 7.50
-1.25 3.72 6.95
-1.00 3.28 6.40
-0.75 2.43 4.10
-0.25 1.79 2.73
0 1.53 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.84
+0.75 1.16 1.44
+1.00 1.05 1.25
+1.25 1.04 1.20
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.49 4.41
-0.50 2.11 3.40
-0.25 1.82 2.97
0 1.52 2.51
+0.25 1.38 1.99
+0.50 1.30 1.72
+0.75 1.20 1.52
Primary Bets
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