Leon vs Club America Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Leon
Oct 18, 2026 - 01:00
0.99 1.35
Club America
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Leon opened at -0.25 against Club America in the Liga MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
Leon +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Leon -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward Club America than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Club America +0.25
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.57
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.47
Price Advantage
+31.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.55 / 1.80 -0.25 2.55 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.78 / 1.93 -0.25 2.78 / 1.93 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.61 / 1.80 -0.25 2.61 / 1.80 — 0
Betano -0.50 3.15 / 2.22 -0.50 3.15 / 2.22 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.56 / 1.83 -0.25 2.56 / 1.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
xG 0.99 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.78
Leon @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.14
Leon @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.78 vs 3.14
Market price is 11.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.05 4.85
-1.50 6.05 3.80
-1.25 5.65 3.42
-1.00 5.20 3.04
-0.75 3.58 2.35
-0.25 2.61 1.80
0 2.25 1.58
+0.25 1.83 1.44
+0.75 1.47 1.21
+1.00 1.29 1.10
+1.25 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.06
+1.75 1.11 1.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.91 2.09
-0.25 2.56 1.83
0 2.21 1.57
+0.25 1.84 1.43
+0.50 1.63 1.34

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 2.22
+0.50 1.70 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 4.85
-1.50 6.05 3.80
-1.25 5.65 3.42
-1.00 5.20 3.04
-0.75 3.58 2.35
-0.25 2.55 1.80
0 2.25 1.58
+0.25 1.83 1.41
+0.75 1.47 1.21
+1.00 1.29 1.10
+1.25 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.06
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.04 2.64
-0.50 3.19 2.24
-0.25 2.78 1.93
0 2.35 1.62
+0.25 1.91 1.46
+0.50 1.68 1.36
+0.75 1.50 1.25
Primary Bets
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