U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Oct 12, 2026 - 01:00
0.98 1.52
Cruz Azul
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

U.N.A.M. - Pumas opened at -0.25 against Cruz Azul in the Liga MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
U.N.A.M. - Pumas +0.49

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
U.N.A.M. - Pumas -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.74
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.74 AH points more toward Cruz Azul than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cruz Azul +0.25
@ 1.83
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.74
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.39
Price Advantage
+31.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.73 / 1.73 -0.25 2.73 / 1.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.93 / 1.83 -0.25 2.93 / 1.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.79 / 1.73 -0.25 2.79 / 1.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.87 / 1.83 -0.25 2.87 / 1.83 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 3.10 / 1.99 -0.50 3.10 / 1.99 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
xG 0.98 / 1.52 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.93
U.N.A.M. - Pumas @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.57
U.N.A.M. - Pumas @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.93 vs 3.57
Market price is 17.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.64
-1.50 6.80 3.58
-1.25 6.29 3.20
-1.00 5.80 2.88
-0.75 3.92 2.28
-0.25 2.79 1.73
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.92 1.39
+0.75 1.50 1.18
+1.00 1.32 1.07
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.70
-1.25 6.25 3.30
-1.00 5.75 3.00
-0.75 3.90 2.35
-0.50 3.10 2.05
-0.25 2.75 1.82
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 1.98 1.42
+0.50 1.75 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.24
+1.00 1.38 1.14
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.26 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 1.99
-0.25 2.72 1.75
0 2.34 1.51
+0.25 1.93 1.38
+0.50 1.70 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.25 2.07
-0.25 2.87 1.83
+0.25 2.02 1.45
+0.50 1.78 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 4.65
-1.50 6.80 3.58
-1.25 6.30 3.20
-1.00 5.80 2.88
-0.75 3.92 2.28
-0.25 2.73 1.73
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.92 1.36
+0.75 1.50 1.18
+1.00 1.32 1.07
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.23 2.43
-0.50 3.33 2.09
-0.25 2.93 1.83
0 2.51 1.55
+0.25 2.03 1.42
+0.50 1.77 1.33
+0.75 1.58 1.23
Primary Bets
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