FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Juarez
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:00
1.00 2.04
Club Tijuana
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Juarez opened at -0.25 against Club Tijuana in the Liga MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.98
FC Juarez +0.98

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
FC Juarez -0.25
Model–Market Gap
1.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 1.23 AH points more toward Club Tijuana than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Club Tijuana +0.25
@ 2.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.25
Price Advantage
+64.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.44 / 1.91 -0.25 2.44 / 1.91 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.17 / 1.72 0 2.17 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 2.00 0 2.10 / 1.70 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.49 / 1.91 -0.25 2.49 / 1.91 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.83 / 1.55 +0.25 1.83 / 1.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.42 / 1.93 -0.25 2.41 / 1.94 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.98
xG 1.00 / 2.04 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.44
FC Juarez @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
5.04
FC Juarez @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.44 vs 5.04
Market price is 51.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.64
-1.50 6.05 4.33
-1.25 5.55 3.90
-1.00 5.10 3.42
-0.75 3.50 2.59
-0.25 2.49 1.91
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.73 1.48
+0.75 1.39 1.22
+1.00 1.23 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.40
-1.25 5.50 4.00
-1.00 5.00 3.55
-0.75 3.55 2.75
-0.50 2.85 2.30
-0.25 2.50 2.02
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.78 1.50
+0.50 1.60 1.40
+0.75 1.42 1.27
+1.00 1.27 1.17
+1.25 1.23 1.15
+1.50 1.20 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.77 2.23
-0.25 2.41 1.94
0 2.06 1.65
+0.25 1.74 1.48
+0.50 1.56 1.37

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.60 2.77
-0.50 2.90 2.32
-0.25 2.55 2.02
+0.25 1.83 1.55
+0.50 1.65 1.44
+0.75 1.47 1.31

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.65
-1.50 6.05 4.33
-1.25 5.55 3.90
-1.00 5.10 3.42
-0.75 3.50 2.59
-0.25 2.44 1.91
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.73 1.44
+0.75 1.39 1.22
+1.00 1.23 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.69 2.84
-0.50 2.95 2.37
-0.25 2.57 2.06
0 2.17 1.72
+0.25 1.81 1.52
+0.50 1.61 1.41
+0.75 1.44 1.28
Primary Bets
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