Puebla vs Atlante FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Puebla
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Atlante FC
Kick-off 01:00 Stadium Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Puebla opened at -0.25 against Atlante FC in the Liga MX. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Puebla -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Atlante FC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Atlante FC +0.25
@ 2.58
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+47.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:33
Opening
-0.25
21:25
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
00:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.58 -0.25 1.92 / 2.40 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.91 0 1.75 / 2.18 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.68 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.58 -0.25 1.96 / 2.40 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 2.75 -0.25 2.02 / 2.57 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 1.95 / 2.41 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.55 7.70
-1.50 4.30 5.80
-1.25 3.90 5.35
-1.00 3.48 4.90
-0.75 2.62 3.42
-0.25 1.96 2.40
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.46 1.76
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.11 1.22
+1.25 1.09 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.03 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.00
-1.25 3.90 5.75
-1.00 3.55 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 2.00 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.80
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.27
+1.25 1.14 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.24 2.77
-0.25 1.95 2.41
0 1.65 2.06
+0.25 1.48 1.73
+0.50 1.37 1.55

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.80 3.70
-0.50 2.35 2.95
-0.25 2.02 2.57
+0.25 1.53 1.83
+0.50 1.42 1.62
+0.75 1.30 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.55 7.70
-1.50 4.30 5.80
-1.25 3.90 5.35
-1.00 3.48 4.90
-0.75 2.62 3.42
-0.25 1.92 2.40
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.46 1.72
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.11 1.22
+1.25 1.09 1.18
+1.50 1.07 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.88 3.71
-0.50 2.40 2.96
-0.25 2.09 2.58
0 1.75 2.18
+0.25 1.55 1.83
+0.50 1.43 1.63
+0.75 1.30 1.46
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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