Genoa vs Fiorentina Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Genoa
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1.04 1.28
Fiorentina
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Genoa opened at -0.25 against Fiorentina in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Genoa +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Genoa -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Fiorentina than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Fiorentina +0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+31.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.57 / 1.93 -0.25 2.57 / 1.93 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.79 / 2.01 -0.25 2.83 / 2.03 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 2.00 -0.25 2.60 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.72 / 1.93 -0.25 2.72 / 1.93 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.56 / 1.89 -0.25 2.56 / 1.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
xG 1.04 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.83
Genoa @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.86
Genoa @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.83 vs 2.86
Market price is 1.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.15 5.89
-1.50 6.75 4.50
-1.25 6.28 4.07
-1.00 5.75 3.58
-0.75 3.82 2.65
-0.25 2.72 1.93
0 2.31 1.72
+0.25 1.80 1.54
+0.75 1.41 1.22
+1.00 1.24 1.10
+1.25 1.17 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 4.40
-1.25 6.25 4.00
-1.00 5.75 3.55
-0.75 3.80 2.68
-0.50 3.00 2.25
-0.25 2.60 2.00
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.48
+0.50 1.62 1.38
+0.75 1.45 1.25
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.23 1.12
+1.50 1.20 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.80 2.64
-0.50 2.95 2.19
-0.25 2.56 1.89
0 2.16 1.59
+0.25 1.78 1.43
+0.50 1.58 1.33
+0.75 1.41 1.21

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 2.27
-0.25 2.70 1.98
+0.25 1.88 1.50
+0.50 1.67 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.10 5.90
-1.50 6.75 4.50
-1.25 6.25 4.10
-1.00 5.75 3.58
-0.75 3.82 2.66
-0.25 2.57 1.93
0 2.23 1.66
+0.25 1.80 1.46
+0.75 1.42 1.22
+1.00 1.24 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.07
+1.50 1.14 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.25 2.86
-0.50 3.30 2.37
-0.25 2.83 2.03
0 2.34 1.66
+0.25 1.88 1.47
+0.50 1.65 1.36
+0.75 1.47 1.25
Primary Bets
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