Llaneros vs America de Cali Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Llaneros
Oct 05, 2026 - 01:15
0.76 1.45
America de Cali
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Llaneros opened at -0.25 against America de Cali in the Primera A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.63
Llaneros +0.63

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Llaneros -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.88
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.88 AH points more toward America de Cali than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
America de Cali +0.25
@ 1.87
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.88
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.29
Price Advantage
+45.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.77 / 1.77 -0.25 2.77 / 1.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.01 / 1.85 -0.25 3.01 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.83 / 1.77 -0.25 2.83 / 1.77 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.90 / 1.87 -0.25 2.90 / 1.87 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.63
xG 0.76 / 1.45 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.01
Llaneros @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
4.41
Llaneros @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.01 vs 4.41
Market price is 31.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 5.00
-1.50 7.10 3.90
-1.25 6.70 3.50
-1.00 6.25 3.08
-0.75 4.15 2.38
-0.25 2.83 1.77
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.87 1.38
+0.75 1.46 1.16
+1.00 1.28 1.06
+1.25 1.22 1.05
+1.50 1.18 1.04

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.90 1.87
+0.25 1.91 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 5.00
-1.50 7.10 3.90
-1.25 6.70 3.50
-1.00 6.25 3.08
-0.75 4.15 2.38
-0.25 2.77 1.77
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.87 1.35
+0.75 1.46 1.16
+1.00 1.28 1.06
+1.25 1.22 1.05
+1.50 1.18 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.56 2.58
-0.50 3.50 2.17
-0.25 3.01 1.85
0 2.50 1.53
+0.25 1.95 1.38
+0.50 1.68 1.29
+0.75 1.49 1.19
Primary Bets
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