Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jaguares
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Alianza Valledupar
Kick-off 21:00 Stadium Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jaguares opened at -0.25 against Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.38
Jaguares +0.38

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.99 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Jaguares -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.63
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.63 AH points more toward Alianza Valledupar than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Alianza Valledupar +0.25
@ 2.65
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.63
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.44
Price Advantage
+84.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:03
Opening
-0.25
20:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
20:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.62 -0.25 1.96 / 2.49 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.87 / 2.93 0 1.71 / 2.18 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 0 1.75 / 2.05 -0.25 +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.62 -0.25 2.00 / 2.49 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.72 -0.25 2.05 / 2.50 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.70 -0.25 1.99 / 2.47 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 9.30
-1.50 4.90 6.90
-1.25 4.44 6.34
-1.00 3.92 5.75
-0.75 2.78 3.74
-0.25 2.00 2.49
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.43 1.73
+0.75 1.19 1.34
+1.00 1.07 1.18
+1.25 1.06 1.14
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 6.60
-1.25 4.80 6.00
-1.00 4.40 5.50
-0.75 3.10 3.70
-0.50 2.50 3.00
-0.25 2.15 2.50
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.50 1.68
+0.50 1.38 1.50
+0.75 1.26 1.35
+1.00 1.15 1.20
+1.25 1.12 1.18
+1.50 1.11 1.15

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.99 2.47
0 1.66 2.05
+0.25 1.46 1.70

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.40 2.90
-0.25 2.05 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 9.30
-1.50 4.90 6.90
-1.25 4.45 6.35
-1.00 3.92 5.75
-0.75 2.78 3.75
-0.25 1.96 2.49
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.43 1.69
+0.75 1.19 1.34
+1.00 1.07 1.18
+1.25 1.06 1.14
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.04 4.00
-0.50 2.48 3.11
-0.25 2.11 2.65
0 1.71 2.18
+0.25 1.50 1.78
+0.50 1.38 1.56
+0.75 1.26 1.40
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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