Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Pereira
Aug 16, 2026 - 21:00 PST
1.05 0.90
Jaguares
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 2 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Pereira opened at 0 against Jaguares in the Primera A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Deportivo Pereira from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.13
Deportivo Pereira -0.13

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Deportivo Pereira -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.12
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.12 AH points more toward Jaguares than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.61 / 2.21 -0.25 1.85 / 2.65 — -0.25
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.06 / 1.14 +1.50 1.06 / 1.14 — 0
Bet365 0 1.65 / 2.20 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.13
xG 1.05 / 0.90 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.85
Deportivo Pereira @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.20
Deportivo Pereira @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.85 vs 2.20
Market price is 15.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 7.00
-1.25 4.25 6.60
-1.00 3.80 6.00
-0.75 2.75 3.90
-0.50 2.35 3.10
-0.25 2.00 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.80
+0.50 1.35 1.58
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.10 1.18

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 7.50
+1.50 1.06 1.14

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.50
-1.25 4.05 6.90
-1.00 3.50 6.35
-0.75 2.57 4.05
-0.25 1.85 2.65
0 1.58 2.27
+0.25 1.39 1.80
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.25 1.04 1.17
+1.50 1.03 1.13
Primary Bets
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