Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cucuta
Aug 16, 2026 - 01:10 PST
0.99 1.02
Águilas Doradas
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cucuta opened at -0.25 against Águilas Doradas in the Primera A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.03
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cucuta -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.28
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.28 AH points more toward Águilas Doradas than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Águilas Doradas +0.25
@ 2.69
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.28
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+61.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.73 / 2.05 0 1.73 / 2.05 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.55 -0.25 1.89 / 2.55 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.01 / 2.68 -0.25 2.00 / 2.69 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.96 / 2.55 -0.25 1.93 / 2.55 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.03
xG 0.99 / 1.02 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.00
Cucuta @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.50
Cucuta @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.00 vs 2.50
Market price is 20.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.73 2.05

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 9.10
-1.50 4.50 6.75
-1.25 4.00 6.20
-1.00 3.50 5.65
-0.75 2.64 3.74
-0.25 1.93 2.55
0 1.63 2.18
+0.25 1.42 1.80
+0.75 1.19 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.00
-1.25 4.10 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.90
-0.50 2.30 3.10
-0.25 1.98 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.82
+0.50 1.35 1.60
+0.75 1.24 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.23
+1.50 1.10 1.19

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 9.10
-1.50 4.50 6.75
-1.25 4.00 6.20
-1.00 3.50 5.65
-0.75 2.64 3.75
-0.25 1.89 2.55
0 1.63 2.18
+0.25 1.42 1.76
+0.75 1.20 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.25 1.06 1.17
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.81 3.97
-0.50 2.33 3.11
-0.25 2.00 2.69
0 1.65 2.24
+0.25 1.47 1.83
+0.50 1.36 1.61
+0.75 1.25 1.44
Primary Bets
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