Chico vs Junior Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chico
Aug 16, 2026 - 01:10 PST
0.90 1.27
Junior
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chico opened at -0.25 against Junior in the Primera A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
Chico +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Chico -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward Junior than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Junior +0.25
@ 1.72
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.57
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.44
Price Advantage
+19.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 2.25 / 1.60 0 2.25 / 1.60 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.18 / 1.65 -0.25 3.05 / 1.69 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.12 / 1.69 -0.25 3.12 / 1.69 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.05 / 1.72 -0.25 3.05 / 1.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
xG 0.90 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.05
Chico @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.25
Chico @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.05 vs 3.25
Market price is 6.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.25 1.60

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.70
-1.50 7.90 3.68
-1.25 7.50 3.28
-1.00 7.10 2.88
-0.75 4.55 2.24
-0.25 3.12 1.69
0 2.64 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.33
+0.75 1.52 1.13
+1.00 1.32 1.04
+1.25 1.25 1.03
+1.50 1.20 1.02

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.05 1.72
+0.25 2.10 1.36

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.90 3.68
-1.25 7.50 3.28
-1.00 7.10 2.88
-0.75 4.55 2.25
-0.25 3.05 1.69
0 2.64 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.30
+0.75 1.52 1.13
+1.00 1.32 1.04
+1.25 1.25 1.03
+1.50 1.20 1.02
Primary Bets
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