Bogota FC vs Envigado Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Bogota FC
Final Score
3 – 3
(HT 0-2)
Envigado
Kick-off 22:00 Stadium Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Bogota FC opened at 0 against Envigado in the Primera B. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Bogota FC +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.18 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Bogota FC 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Envigado than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Envigado 0
@ 1.80
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+3.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:22
Opening
0
20:12
Last Pre-Match
0
21:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.78 0 1.94 / 1.73 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.04 / 1.79 0 2.03 / 1.80 0 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 0
1xBet 0 1.88 / 1.78 0 1.94 / 1.73 0 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.51 / 2.01 0 1.93 / 1.75 0 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 7.40
-1.50 6.50 5.50
-1.25 5.95 5.04
-1.00 5.40 4.50
-0.75 3.50 3.05
-0.25 2.37 2.08
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.60 1.48
+0.75 1.28 1.22
+1.00 1.13 1.09
+1.25 1.10 1.07
+1.50 1.08 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 5.25
-1.25 5.75 4.65
-1.00 5.25 4.25
-0.75 3.55 3.10
-0.50 2.85 2.50
-0.25 2.42 2.15
0 2.05 1.75
+0.25 1.68 1.52
+0.50 1.50 1.40
+0.75 1.35 1.27
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.18 1.14
+1.50 1.16 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.76 2.51
-0.25 2.35 2.13
0 1.93 1.75
+0.25 1.61 1.51
+0.50 1.45 1.37

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.70 7.40
-1.50 6.50 5.50
-1.25 5.95 5.05
-1.00 5.40 4.50
-0.75 3.50 3.05
-0.25 2.35 2.08
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.60 1.47
+0.75 1.28 1.22
+1.00 1.13 1.09
+1.25 1.10 1.07
+1.50 1.08 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.67 3.20
-0.50 2.89 2.57
-0.25 2.48 2.20
0 2.03 1.80
+0.25 1.66 1.53
+0.50 1.48 1.39
+0.75 1.33 1.26
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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