Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Boys Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Juan Pablo II College
Oct 17, 2026 - 20:00
1.49 1.48
Sport Boys
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Juan Pablo II College opened at -0.25 against Sport Boys in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Juan Pablo II College -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward Sport Boys than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sport Boys +0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+64.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.65 -0.25 1.77 / 2.65 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.87 / 2.90 -0.25 1.87 / 2.90 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.65 -0.25 1.80 / 2.65 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
xG 1.49 / 1.48 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.87
Juan Pablo II College @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.31
Juan Pablo II College @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.87 vs 2.31
Market price is 19.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.84 8.50
-1.50 3.80 6.45
-1.25 3.42 6.04
-1.00 3.04 5.60
-0.75 2.33 3.80
-0.25 1.80 2.65
0 1.54 2.33
+0.25 1.38 1.91
+0.75 1.19 1.48
+1.00 1.08 1.29
+1.25 1.06 1.23
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.60
-1.25 3.80 6.00
-1.00 3.45 5.75
-0.75 2.60 3.80
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.95 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.85
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.25 1.48
+1.00 1.14 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.25
+1.50 1.11 1.21

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.85 8.50
-1.50 3.80 6.45
-1.25 3.42 6.05
-1.00 3.04 5.60
-0.75 2.33 3.80
-0.25 1.77 2.65
0 1.54 2.33
+0.25 1.38 1.87
+0.75 1.19 1.48
+1.00 1.08 1.29
+1.25 1.06 1.23
+1.50 1.05 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 3.35
-0.25 1.87 2.90
0 1.54 2.45
+0.25 1.39 1.94
+0.50 1.30 1.68
Primary Bets
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