Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sport Boys
Oct 11, 2026 - 20:30
1.42 1.62
Alianza Atletico
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sport Boys opened at -0.25 against Alianza Atletico in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Sport Boys +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Sport Boys -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Alianza Atletico than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Alianza Atletico +0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+96.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.60 / 3.12 -0.25 1.60 / 3.12 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 3.19 -0.25 1.68 / 3.19 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.64 / 3.12 -0.25 1.64 / 3.12 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.65 / 2.80 -0.25 1.65 / 2.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
xG 1.42 / 1.62 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.68
Sport Boys @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Sport Boys @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.68 vs 2.62
Market price is 35.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.24 9.50
-1.50 3.34 8.30
-1.25 2.97 7.85
-1.00 2.59 7.40
-0.75 2.08 4.70
-0.25 1.64 3.12
0 1.39 2.79
+0.25 1.28 2.14
+0.75 1.12 1.60
+1.00 1.03 1.39
+1.25 1.02 1.30

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.30 6.80
-1.00 2.85 7.00
-0.75 2.30 4.40
-0.50 2.00 3.45
-0.25 1.72 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.08
+0.50 1.30 1.80
+0.75 1.20 1.60
+1.00 1.10 1.40
+1.25 1.10 1.32

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 2.80
+0.25 1.40 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.25 9.50
-1.50 3.34 8.30
-1.25 2.97 7.90
-1.00 2.59 7.40
-0.75 2.08 4.70
-0.25 1.60 3.12
0 1.39 2.79
+0.25 1.28 2.10
+0.75 1.12 1.60
+1.00 1.03 1.39
+1.25 1.02 1.30

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.68 3.19
0 1.43 2.74
+0.25 1.33 2.16
Primary Bets
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