UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

UCV Moquegua
Oct 08, 2026 - 18:00
1.50 1.54
Cienciano
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

UCV Moquegua opened at -0.25 against Cienciano in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
UCV Moquegua -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Cienciano than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
UCV Moquegua -0.25
@ 2.80
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.37
Price Advantage
+18.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.81 / 1.69 -0.25 2.58 / 1.79 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.04 / 1.72 -0.25 2.73 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.85 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.88 / 1.69 -0.25 2.64 / 1.79 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.80 / 1.80 -0.25 2.80 / 1.78 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.73 / 1.78 -0.25 2.70 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.50 / 1.54 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.73
UCV Moquegua @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.37
UCV Moquegua @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.73 vs 2.37
Market price is 15.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.50 7.10
-1.75 8.15 4.89
-1.50 6.25 3.85
-1.25 5.85 3.42
-1.00 5.40 3.08
-0.75 3.70 2.38
-0.25 2.64 1.79
0 2.29 1.56
+0.25 1.84 1.43
+0.75 1.46 1.20
+1.00 1.28 1.09
+1.25 1.23 1.07
+1.50 1.18 1.06
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 4.00
-1.25 6.25 3.55
-1.00 5.75 3.30
-0.75 3.80 2.50
-0.50 3.10 2.15
-0.25 2.68 1.85
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.95 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.35
+0.75 1.50 1.25
+1.00 1.32 1.14
+1.25 1.27 1.12
+1.50 1.23 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.70 1.80
0 2.29 1.53
+0.25 1.87 1.39

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.80 1.78
+0.25 1.98 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.20 4.90
-1.50 6.25 3.85
-1.25 5.85 3.42
-1.00 5.40 3.08
-0.75 3.70 2.38
-0.25 2.58 1.79
0 2.29 1.56
+0.25 1.84 1.40
+0.75 1.46 1.20
+1.00 1.28 1.09
+1.25 1.23 1.07
+1.50 1.18 1.06
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.11 2.14
-0.25 2.73 1.88
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.93 1.43
+0.50 1.69 1.34
Primary Bets
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