Cusco vs Alianza Lima Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cusco
Oct 11, 2026 - 23:30 PST
1.60 1.44
Alianza Lima
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cusco opened at 0 against Alianza Lima in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Cusco from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.15
Cusco -0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cusco -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.10
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.10 AH points more toward Alianza Lima than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Alianza Lima +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.10
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.89
Price Advantage
+50.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.81 / 1.91 -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.88 / 1.93 -0.25 1.90 / 2.85 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet 0 1.81 / 1.91 -0.25 1.89 / 2.62 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.07 / 2.40 -0.25 2.00 / 2.55 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.15
xG 1.60 / 1.44 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Cusco @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.12
Cusco @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.12
Market price is 10.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.10 9.80
-1.75 5.45 8.70
-1.50 4.25 6.60
-1.25 3.85 6.19
-1.00 3.42 5.75
-0.75 2.56 3.84
-0.25 1.89 2.62
0 1.58 2.25
+0.25 1.39 1.82
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.00
-1.25 4.15 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.22
+1.50 1.10 1.19

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 2.77
-0.25 2.00 2.55
+0.25 1.47 1.75
+0.50 1.42 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.70
-1.50 4.25 6.60
-1.25 3.85 6.20
-1.00 3.42 5.75
-0.75 2.56 3.84
-0.25 1.85 2.62
0 1.58 2.25
+0.25 1.39 1.78
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.62 3.35
-0.50 2.21 3.31
-0.25 1.90 2.85
0 1.56 2.40
+0.25 1.39 1.90
+0.50 1.30 1.64
+0.75 1.30 1.45
Primary Bets
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