UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

UTC Cajamarca
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:00 PST
1.35 1.69
Sporting Cristal
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

UTC Cajamarca opened at -0.25 against Sporting Cristal in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
UTC Cajamarca +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
UTC Cajamarca -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.56
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.56 AH points more toward Sporting Cristal than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sporting Cristal +0.25
@ 1.69
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.56
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+9.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.04 / 1.61 -0.25 3.04 / 1.61 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.06 / 1.69 -0.25 3.06 / 1.69 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.07 / 1.68 -0.25 3.07 / 1.68 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
xG 1.35 / 1.69 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.06
UTC Cajamarca @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.87
UTC Cajamarca @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.06 vs 2.87
Market price is 6.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.30
-1.00 6.00 2.60
-0.75 4.20 2.17
-0.25 3.07 1.68
0 2.60 1.43
+0.25 2.05 1.32
+0.75 1.60 1.18
+1.00 1.43 1.08
+1.50 1.28 1.06

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.20 3.14
-1.25 6.80 2.86
-1.00 6.40 2.59
-0.75 4.35 2.07
-0.25 3.04 1.61
0 2.62 1.38
+0.25 2.07 1.29
+0.75 1.62 1.14
+1.00 1.44 1.05
+1.25 1.33 1.04
+1.50 1.27 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.06 1.69
0 2.67 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
Primary Bets
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