NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

NK Osijek
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1.40 0.95
Istra 1961
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

NK Osijek opened at -0.25 against Istra 1961 in the HNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.40
NK Osijek -0.40

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
NK Osijek -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.15
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.15 AH points more toward NK Osijek than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Istra 1961 +0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.15
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.21
Price Advantage
+38.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.73 -0.25 1.68 / 2.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 3.05 -0.25 1.72 / 3.05 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.72 / 2.76 -0.25 1.72 / 2.76 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.40
xG 1.40 / 0.95 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.72
NK Osijek @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.83
NK Osijek @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.72 vs 1.83
Market price is 6.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 8.30
-1.50 3.34 6.40
-1.25 2.99 6.02
-1.00 2.66 5.60
-0.75 2.18 3.92
-0.25 1.72 2.76
0 1.49 2.46
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.75 1.19 1.58
+1.00 1.08 1.37
+1.25 1.07 1.31
+1.50 1.05 1.24
+1.75 1.02 1.16

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 8.30
-1.50 3.34 6.40
-1.25 2.97 6.00
-1.00 2.66 5.60
-0.75 2.15 3.88
-0.25 1.68 2.73
0 1.49 2.46
+0.25 1.36 1.98
+0.75 1.18 1.56
+1.00 1.08 1.37
+1.25 1.06 1.30
+1.50 1.05 1.24
+1.75 1.02 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.47
-0.25 1.72 3.05
0 1.47 2.64
+0.25 1.36 2.10
+0.50 1.29 1.83
Primary Bets
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