NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
0.83 1.63
NK Varazdin
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb opened at -0.25 against NK Varazdin in the HNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.75
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb +0.75

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.25
Model–Market Gap
1.00
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 1.00 AH points more toward NK Varazdin than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
NK Varazdin +0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.00
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.28
Price Advantage
+58.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.40 / 1.89 -0.25 2.40 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.12 / 1.70 0 2.12 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.43 / 1.93 -0.25 2.43 / 1.93 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.57 / 1.95 -0.25 2.57 / 1.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.75
xG 0.83 / 1.63 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.40
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
4.61
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.40 vs 4.61
Market price is 47.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.30 5.25
-1.50 5.65 4.10
-1.25 5.26 3.76
-1.00 4.80 3.34
-0.75 3.36 2.55
-0.25 2.43 1.93
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.78 1.48
+0.75 1.43 1.25
+1.00 1.24 1.12
+1.25 1.20 1.10
+1.50 1.16 1.08
+1.75 1.09 1.03

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.57 1.95
+0.25 1.83 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.30 5.25
-1.50 5.65 4.10
-1.25 5.25 3.74
-1.00 4.80 3.34
-0.75 3.34 2.52
-0.25 2.40 1.89
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.75 1.46
+0.75 1.41 1.24
+1.00 1.24 1.12
+1.25 1.19 1.09
+1.50 1.16 1.08
+1.75 1.09 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.58 2.79
-0.50 2.87 2.33
-0.25 2.51 2.03
0 2.12 1.70
+0.25 1.79 1.52
+0.50 1.59 1.40
+0.75 1.43 1.28
Primary Bets
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