HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

HNK Hajduk Split
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1.13 1.47
Dinamo Zagreb
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

HNK Hajduk Split opened at -0.25 against Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
HNK Hajduk Split +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
HNK Hajduk Split -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.56
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.56 AH points more toward Dinamo Zagreb than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dinamo Zagreb +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.56
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.50
Price Advantage
+30.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.35 / 1.89 -0.25 2.35 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.37 / 1.93 -0.25 2.37 / 1.93 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.46 / 1.89 -0.25 2.46 / 1.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
xG 1.13 / 1.47 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.60
HNK Hajduk Split @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.99
HNK Hajduk Split @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.60 vs 2.99
Market price is 13.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.50 7.10
-1.75 6.80 5.00
-1.50 5.30 3.96
-1.25 4.96 3.60
-1.00 4.55 3.20
-0.75 3.30 2.52
-0.25 2.37 1.93
0 2.09 1.67
+0.25 1.78 1.50
+0.75 1.44 1.26
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.22 1.11
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.46 1.89
0 2.11 1.62
+0.25 1.78 1.46

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.50 1.95
+0.25 1.83 1.52

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 5.00
-1.50 5.30 3.96
-1.25 4.95 3.58
-1.00 4.55 3.20
-0.75 3.28 2.49
-0.25 2.35 1.89
0 2.09 1.67
+0.25 1.75 1.48
+0.75 1.42 1.25
+1.00 1.26 1.13
+1.25 1.21 1.11
+1.50 1.17 1.09
+1.75 1.10 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.70 2.65
-0.50 2.97 2.24
-0.25 2.60 1.95
0 2.22 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.48
+0.50 1.64 1.38
+0.75 1.47 1.26
Primary Bets
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