Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Istra 1961
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
HNK Gorica
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Stadion Aldo Drosina

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Istra 1961 opened at -0.25 against HNK Gorica in the HNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.30
Istra 1961 -0.30

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 0.96
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Istra 1961 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Istra 1961 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
HNK Gorica +0.25
@ 3.12
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.07
Price Advantage
+50.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
02:15
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 3.10 -0.25 1.61 / 3.10 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.64 / 3.12 -0.25 1.64 / 3.12 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 8.10
-1.25 2.94 7.70
-1.00 2.56 7.10
-0.75 2.11 4.62
-0.25 1.64 3.12
0 1.41 2.71
+0.25 1.30 2.13
+0.75 1.13 1.62
+1.00 1.04 1.40
+1.25 1.03 1.32
+1.50 1.02 1.25

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.85 6.80
-0.75 2.30 4.40
-0.50 2.00 3.45
-0.25 1.72 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.08
+0.50 1.30 1.80
+0.75 1.20 1.60
+1.00 1.10 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 8.10
-1.25 2.92 7.70
-1.00 2.56 7.10
-0.75 2.08 4.60
-0.25 1.61 3.10
0 1.41 2.71
+0.25 1.28 2.08
+0.75 1.13 1.60
+1.00 1.04 1.40
+1.25 1.03 1.31
+1.50 1.02 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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