Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Suduva Marijampole
Oct 19, 2026 - 15:45
1.23 1.37
Kauno Žalgiris
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Suduva Marijampole opened at -0.25 against Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Suduva Marijampole -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward Kauno Žalgiris than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Suduva Marijampole -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.59
Price Advantage
+15.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.89 / 1.68 -0.25 2.89 / 1.68 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
xG 1.23 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.88
Suduva Marijampole @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
Suduva Marijampole @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.88 vs 2.59
Market price is 11.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 3.58
-1.25 7.30 3.21
-1.00 6.75 2.83
-0.75 4.34 2.22
-0.25 2.89 1.68
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 2.00 1.33
+0.75 1.54 1.15
+1.00 1.33 1.04
+1.25 1.26 1.03
+1.50 1.21 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.80 2.85
-0.75 4.40 2.30
-0.50 3.45 2.00
-0.25 3.00 1.72
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.08 1.38
+0.50 1.80 1.30
+0.75 1.60 1.20
+1.00 1.40 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 3.58
-1.25 7.30 3.20
-1.00 6.75 2.83
-0.75 4.33 2.21
-0.25 2.88 1.67
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.32
+0.75 1.53 1.14
+1.00 1.33 1.04
+1.25 1.26 1.03
+1.50 1.21 1.02
Primary Bets
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