TransINVEST Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

TransINVEST Vilnius
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 1-0)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium FK TransINVEST stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

TransINVEST Vilnius opened at -0.25 against FK Zalgiris Vilnius in the A Lyga. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward FK Zalgiris Vilnius from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
TransINVEST Vilnius +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.21 / 1.39
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
TransINVEST Vilnius 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward FK Zalgiris Vilnius than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

Price advantage is below the lean threshold.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
12:52
Last Pre-Match
0
16:29
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.59 / 1.75 -0.25 2.35 / 1.90 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.84 / 1.50 0 2.10 / 1.72 0 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 +0.25
1xBet 0 2.26 / 1.54 -0.25 2.36 / 1.92 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.50 7.70
-1.75 7.10 5.25
-1.50 5.45 4.10
-1.25 5.05 3.74
-1.00 4.60 3.34
-0.75 3.28 2.57
-0.25 2.36 1.92
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.74 1.48
+0.75 1.41 1.25
+1.00 1.24 1.13
+1.25 1.20 1.10
+1.50 1.16 1.08
+1.75 1.09 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.50
-1.50 5.50 4.15
-1.25 4.80 3.80
-1.00 4.40 3.45
-0.75 3.30 2.68
-0.50 2.68 2.30
-0.25 2.38 2.02
0 2.00 1.80
+0.25 1.78 1.55
+0.50 1.60 1.45
+0.75 1.45 1.32
+1.00 1.30 1.20
+1.25 1.25 1.18
+1.50 1.22 1.15
+1.75 1.15 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 5.25
-1.50 5.45 4.10
-1.25 5.05 3.74
-1.00 4.60 3.34
-0.75 3.28 2.56
-0.25 2.35 1.90
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.73 1.47
+0.75 1.40 1.25
+1.00 1.24 1.13
+1.25 1.19 1.10
+1.50 1.16 1.08
+1.75 1.09 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.73 2.29
-0.25 2.41 2.03
0 2.10 1.72
+0.25 1.81 1.54
+0.50 1.61 1.43
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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