Ethiopia vs Senegal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ethiopia
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Senegal
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Bahir Dar Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ethiopia opened at -0.25 against Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 2 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
Ethiopia +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.12 / 1.48
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ethiopia -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 2 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward Senegal than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:14
Opening
-0.25
04:14
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.20 / 1.56 -0.25 3.20 / 1.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.88 / 1.62 -0.25 2.88 / 1.62 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.30 3.20
-1.25 7.90 2.90
-1.00 7.40 2.59
-0.75 4.75 2.03
-0.25 3.20 1.56
0 2.78 1.34
+0.25 2.15 1.26
+0.75 1.64 1.12
+1.00 1.44 1.03
+1.25 1.32 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.88 1.62
0 2.49 1.37
+0.25 1.95 1.27
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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