Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rep. Of Ireland
Oct 04, 2026 - 18:45
1.86 1.93
Israel
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rep. Of Ireland opened at -0.25 against Israel in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rep. Of Ireland -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.31
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.31 AH points more toward Israel than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Israel +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.31
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+83.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 3.04 -0.25 1.67 / 3.20 — 0
1xBet 0 1.53 / 2.65 -0.25 1.73 / 3.20 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 3.10 -0.25 1.62 / 3.10 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.06
xG 1.86 / 1.93 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.67
Rep. Of Ireland @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.35
Rep. Of Ireland @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.67 vs 2.35
Market price is 28.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 8.50
-1.25 3.16 8.10
-1.00 2.77 7.70
-0.75 2.19 4.78
-0.25 1.73 3.20
0 1.47 2.86
+0.25 1.32 2.21
+0.75 1.15 1.62
+1.00 1.05 1.39
+1.25 1.03 1.31
+1.50 1.02 1.24

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.62 3.10
+0.25 1.39 2.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 8.50
-1.25 3.15 8.20
-1.00 2.77 7.70
-0.75 2.19 4.80
-0.25 1.67 3.20
0 1.44 2.82
+0.25 1.32 2.13
+0.75 1.15 1.62
+1.00 1.05 1.39
+1.25 1.04 1.30
+1.50 1.02 1.24
Primary Bets
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