Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Bosnia & Herzegovina
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.59 2.20
Sweden
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 7 books · 71% agreement · Strong
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Bosnia & Herzegovina opened at -0.25 against Sweden in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Sweden from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.58
Bosnia & Herzegovina +0.58

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0
Model–Market Gap
0.58
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.58 AH points more toward Sweden than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sweden 0
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.58
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+25.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.81 0 2.01 / 1.82 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.82 / 1.88 0 1.94 / 1.93 — +0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.77 / 1.56 +0.25 1.77 / 1.56 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 0 1.95 / 1.85 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.84 / 1.81 0 2.04 / 1.85 — +0.25
Betano -0.25 2.87 / 1.83 -0.25 2.30 / 2.18 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.73 / 1.76 0 1.88 / 1.79 — +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.58
xG 1.59 / 2.20 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.94
Bosnia & Herzegovina @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.86
Bosnia & Herzegovina @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.94 vs 2.86
Market price is 32.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.50 11.00
-2.00 9.50 8.90
-1.75 6.99 5.96
-1.50 5.30 4.65
-1.25 4.93 4.23
-1.00 4.50 3.82
-0.75 3.22 2.83
-0.25 2.38 2.08
0 2.04 1.85
+0.25 1.70 1.64
+0.75 1.37 1.31
+1.00 1.22 1.17
+1.25 1.17 1.14
+1.50 1.14 1.11
+1.75 1.07 1.05
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.25
-1.50 5.50 4.65
-1.25 4.80 4.25
-1.00 4.40 3.80
-0.75 3.30 2.85
-0.50 2.68 2.38
-0.25 2.35 2.10
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 1.70 1.58
+0.50 1.55 1.45
+0.75 1.40 1.32
+1.00 1.25 1.20
+1.25 1.21 1.18
+1.50 1.18 1.15
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 2.40
-0.25 2.21 2.10
0 1.88 1.79
+0.25 1.63 1.57
+0.50 1.48 1.44

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.20 3.00
-0.50 2.62 2.50
-0.25 2.30 2.18
+0.25 1.72 1.65
+0.50 1.57 1.52
+0.75 1.42 1.37

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.90 6.00
-1.50 5.30 4.65
-1.25 4.90 4.25
-1.00 4.50 3.82
-0.75 3.22 2.85
-0.25 2.29 2.08
0 2.01 1.82
+0.25 1.70 1.58
+0.75 1.38 1.31
+1.00 1.22 1.17
+1.25 1.17 1.13
+1.50 1.14 1.11
+1.75 1.07 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.51 4.24
-0.75 3.21 3.14
-0.50 2.62 2.60
-0.25 2.27 2.26
0 1.94 1.93
+0.25 1.67 1.66
+0.50 1.52 1.51
+0.75 1.37 1.36
+1.00 1.23 1.21

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.42 2.09
+0.25 1.77 1.56
Primary Bets
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