Hungary vs Georgia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hungary
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.67 2.12
Georgia
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hungary opened at -0.25 against Georgia in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.42
Hungary +0.42

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Hungary -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.67
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.67 AH points more toward Georgia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Georgia +0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.67
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.52
Price Advantage
+109.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 3.04 -0.25 1.72 / 2.97 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.75 / 3.19 -0.25 1.75 / 3.19 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 3.04 -0.25 1.79 / 2.97 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.75 / 3.20 -0.25 1.78 / 3.15 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.68 / 2.89 -0.25 1.68 / 2.89 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.42
xG 1.67 / 2.12 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.75
Hungary @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.91
Hungary @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.75 vs 2.91
Market price is 39.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.82 7.50
-1.25 3.51 7.08
-1.00 3.10 6.70
-0.75 2.31 4.37
-0.25 1.79 2.97
0 1.52 2.68
+0.25 1.33 2.12
+0.75 1.15 1.57
+1.00 1.05 1.38
+1.25 1.04 1.31
+1.50 1.03 1.23

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.40
-1.00 3.45 5.90
-0.75 2.60 3.80
-0.50 2.20 3.10
-0.25 1.92 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.25 1.48
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.10 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.68 2.89
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.34 2.02

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.78 3.15
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.33 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.82 7.50
-1.25 3.44 7.10
-1.00 3.10 6.70
-0.75 2.31 4.40
-0.25 1.72 2.97
0 1.45 2.56
+0.25 1.33 2.03
+0.75 1.16 1.57
+1.00 1.05 1.38
+1.25 1.04 1.28
+1.50 1.03 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 3.67
-0.25 1.75 3.19
0 1.47 2.71
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.28 1.81
Primary Bets
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