Israel vs Kosovo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Israel
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1.73 2.06
Kosovo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Israel opened at -0.25 against Kosovo in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
Israel +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Israel -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.56
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.56 AH points more toward Kosovo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Kosovo +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.56
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+23.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.57 / 1.96 -0.25 2.65 / 1.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.64 / 1.99 -0.25 2.81 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 -0.25 2.68 / 1.90 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.67 / 1.96 -0.25 2.75 / 1.90 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 -0.25 2.75 / 1.95 — -0.50
BetVictor -0.25 2.41 / 1.98 -0.25 2.62 / 1.84 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
xG 1.73 / 2.06 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.81
Israel @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.71
Israel @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.81 vs 2.71
Market price is 3.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 5.61
-1.50 6.85 4.33
-1.25 6.43 3.82
-1.00 5.90 3.48
-0.75 3.90 2.61
-0.25 2.75 1.90
0 2.32 1.66
+0.25 1.84 1.50
+0.75 1.43 1.22
+1.00 1.26 1.10
+1.25 1.20 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 4.15
-1.25 6.25 3.70
-1.00 5.90 3.30
-0.75 3.90 2.50
-0.50 3.10 2.15
-0.25 2.68 1.90
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.35
+0.75 1.50 1.24
+1.00 1.32 1.13
+1.25 1.26 1.12
+1.50 1.22 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.84
0 2.23 1.56
+0.25 1.83 1.41

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.75 2.67
-0.50 3.15 2.25
-0.25 2.75 1.95
+0.25 1.90 1.47
+0.50 1.67 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.30 5.65
-1.50 6.85 4.33
-1.25 6.40 3.84
-1.00 5.90 3.48
-0.75 3.90 2.62
-0.25 2.65 1.90
0 2.29 1.64
+0.25 1.84 1.44
+0.75 1.44 1.22
+1.00 1.26 1.10
+1.25 1.21 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.12 2.67
-0.50 3.23 2.23
-0.25 2.81 1.93
0 2.37 1.61
+0.25 1.93 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.35
+0.75 1.50 1.24
Primary Bets
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