Greece vs Netherlands Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Greece
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1.90 1.89
Netherlands
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Greece opened at -0.25 against Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Greece -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward Netherlands than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Greece -0.25
@ 2.87
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.26
Price Advantage
+27.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.10 / 1.67 -0.25 2.68 / 1.82 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.14 / 1.72 -0.25 2.87 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.88 -0.25 2.68 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.96 / 1.79 -0.25 2.87 / 1.82 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.20 / 1.72 -0.25 2.65 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.70 / 1.78 -0.25 2.65 / 1.81 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
xG 1.90 / 1.89 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.87
Greece @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.26
Greece @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.87 vs 2.26
Market price is 27.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.85 4.05
-1.25 6.37 3.60
-1.00 5.85 3.26
-0.75 3.94 2.55
-0.25 2.87 1.82
0 2.43 1.61
+0.25 1.90 1.46
+0.75 1.56 1.19
+1.00 1.35 1.08
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.90
-1.25 6.25 3.55
-1.00 5.75 3.10
-0.75 3.80 2.42
-0.50 3.10 2.10
-0.25 2.68 1.88
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.98 1.45
+0.50 1.70 1.35
+0.75 1.52 1.25
+1.00 1.35 1.14
+1.25 1.27 1.12
+1.50 1.24 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.65 1.81
0 2.27 1.54
+0.25 1.86 1.40

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.05 2.25
-0.25 2.65 1.95
+0.25 1.90 1.50
+0.50 1.67 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.85 4.05
-1.25 6.35 3.62
-1.00 5.85 3.26
-0.75 3.94 2.46
-0.25 2.68 1.82
0 2.32 1.54
+0.25 1.90 1.40
+0.75 1.51 1.19
+1.00 1.35 1.08
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.21 2.60
-0.50 3.28 2.20
-0.25 2.87 1.93
0 2.43 1.61
+0.25 1.98 1.46
+0.50 1.72 1.36
+0.75 1.54 1.25
Primary Bets
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