Northern Ireland vs Hungary Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Northern Ireland
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Hungary
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Puskás Aréna

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Northern Ireland opened at -0.25 against Hungary in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Hungary from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
Northern Ireland -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 2.04 / 1.75
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Northern Ireland 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Northern Ireland than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Northern Ireland 0
@ 1.97
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+12.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
0
18:44
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.86 / 1.84 0 1.94 / 1.88 0 +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.84 / 1.96 0 1.97 / 1.93 0 +0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.57 / 1.66 +0.25 1.64 / 1.57 +0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.78 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 +0.25
1xBet 0 2.20 / 1.62 0 1.97 / 1.91 0 0
Betano -0.25 2.80 / 1.95 -0.25 2.47 / 2.25 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.82 / 1.83 0 1.85 / 1.82 0 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.90 8.10
-1.50 6.35 6.00
-1.25 5.87 5.51
-1.00 5.30 4.95
-0.75 3.40 3.26
-0.25 2.40 2.22
0 1.97 1.91
+0.25 1.62 1.63
+0.75 1.29 1.28
+1.00 1.14 1.12
+1.25 1.10 1.10
+1.50 1.08 1.07
+1.75 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 6.00
-1.25 6.25 5.50
-1.00 5.75 4.80
-0.75 3.55 3.30
-0.50 2.85 2.60
-0.25 2.38 2.20
0 1.92 1.88
+0.25 1.65 1.55
+0.50 1.48 1.40
+0.75 1.32 1.27
+1.00 1.18 1.14
+1.25 1.15 1.12
+1.50 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.73 2.68
-0.25 2.30 2.25
0 1.85 1.82
+0.25 1.55 1.53
+0.50 1.39 1.38

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.65 3.35
-0.50 2.87 2.65
-0.25 2.47 2.25
+0.25 1.67 1.57
+0.50 1.52 1.45
+0.75 1.35 1.30

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 8.10
-1.50 6.35 6.00
-1.25 5.85 5.55
-1.00 5.30 4.95
-0.75 3.40 3.28
-0.25 2.31 2.22
0 1.94 1.88
+0.25 1.62 1.57
+0.75 1.30 1.28
+1.00 1.14 1.12
+1.25 1.10 1.09
+1.50 1.08 1.07
+1.75 1.03 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.75 5.59
-0.75 3.70 3.62
-0.50 2.89 2.84
-0.25 2.43 2.38
0 1.97 1.93
+0.25 1.63 1.61
+0.50 1.47 1.45
+0.75 1.31 1.30
+1.00 1.17 1.16

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.44 2.31
+0.25 1.64 1.57
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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