Belgium vs France Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Belgium
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
France
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Roi Baudouin

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Belgium opened at -0.25 against France in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.37
Belgium +0.37

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.70 / 2.09
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Belgium -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.62
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.62 AH points more toward France than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
France +0.25
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.62
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+22.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.82 / 1.77 -0.25 2.73 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.19 / 1.66 -0.25 2.91 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.75 -0.25 3.10 / 1.65 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.88 / 1.77 -0.25 2.82 / 1.81 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.78 -0.25 2.75 / 1.90 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.66 / 1.78 -0.25 2.66 / 1.78 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 12.50 6.80
-1.75 9.05 4.68
-1.50 6.55 3.72
-1.25 6.18 3.30
-1.00 5.70 2.97
-0.75 3.86 2.38
-0.25 2.82 1.81
0 2.44 1.61
+0.25 1.95 1.48
+0.75 1.52 1.23
+1.00 1.35 1.11
+1.25 1.27 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.07
+1.75 1.13 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 2.85
-1.00 6.40 2.50
-0.75 4.40 2.10
-0.50 3.45 1.88
-0.25 3.10 1.65
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.20 1.35
+0.50 1.98 1.30
+0.75 1.70 1.20
+1.00 1.50 1.12
+1.25 1.40 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.66 1.78
0 2.29 1.53
+0.25 1.90 1.40

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.18
-0.25 2.75 1.90
+0.25 1.95 1.47
+0.50 1.72 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.80 4.70
-1.50 6.55 3.72
-1.25 6.15 3.32
-1.00 5.70 2.97
-0.75 3.86 2.39
-0.25 2.73 1.81
0 2.41 1.59
+0.25 1.95 1.43
+0.75 1.53 1.23
+1.00 1.35 1.11
+1.25 1.28 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.07
+1.75 1.13 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.20 2.51
-0.50 3.32 2.15
-0.25 2.91 1.88
0 2.47 1.59
+0.25 2.02 1.45
+0.50 1.76 1.36
+0.75 1.57 1.25
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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