Volta Redonda vs Ituano Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Volta Redonda
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Ituano
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Raulino de Oliveira

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Volta Redonda opened at 0 against Ituano in the Serie C. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Volta Redonda from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 7 valid books, with 86% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Volta Redonda -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Volta Redonda -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Ituano than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Ituano +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+59.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 7 valid books · 86% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:10
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.52 / 2.32 -0.25 1.80 / 2.88 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 -0.25 1.88 / 2.95 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet 0 1.52 / 2.32 -0.25 1.82 / 2.88 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.10 / 3.10 -0.50 2.10 / 3.10 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.42 / 1.90 -0.25 1.80 / 2.87 — -0.50
BetVictor 0 1.50 / 2.35 -0.25 1.77 / 2.91 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.74 9.20
-1.50 4.35 8.40
-1.25 3.88 7.80
-1.00 3.42 7.20
-0.75 2.52 4.45
-0.25 1.82 2.88
0 1.49 2.39
+0.25 1.32 1.85
+0.75 1.14 1.41
+1.00 1.03 1.23
+1.25 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 7.00
-1.25 3.55 6.60
-1.00 3.10 6.00
-0.75 2.38 4.50
-0.50 2.05 3.55
-0.25 1.78 3.10
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.35 2.02
+0.50 1.27 1.75
+0.75 1.19 1.55
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.11 1.27
+1.50 1.10 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.77 2.91
0 1.47 2.44
+0.25 1.34 1.91

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.80 2.87
+0.25 1.38 1.93

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.35 8.40
-1.25 3.88 7.80
-1.00 3.42 7.20
-0.75 2.52 4.45
-0.25 1.80 2.88
0 1.49 2.39
+0.25 1.32 1.82
+0.75 1.14 1.41
+1.00 1.03 1.23
+1.25 1.02 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 3.44
-0.25 1.88 2.95
0 1.52 2.46
+0.25 1.36 1.91
+0.50 1.27 1.64

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 6.50
-0.50 2.10 3.10
+0.50 1.30 1.63
+1.50 1.07 1.18
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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