Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Qingdao Jonoon
Oct 17, 2026 - 11:35
1.85 1.77
Shenyang Urban
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Qingdao Jonoon opened at -0.25 against Shenyang Urban in the Super League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Qingdao Jonoon -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Shenyang Urban than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Qingdao Jonoon -0.25
@ 2.96
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.19
Price Advantage
+35.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.69 / 1.72 -0.25 2.69 / 1.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.96 / 1.76 -0.25 2.96 / 1.76 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.88 / 1.72 -0.25 2.88 / 1.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.85 / 1.77 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.96
Qingdao Jonoon @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Qingdao Jonoon @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.96 vs 2.19
Market price is 35.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 7.50
-2.00 8.90 6.60
-1.75 8.60 4.54
-1.50 6.60 3.50
-1.25 6.14 3.20
-1.00 5.65 2.83
-0.75 3.84 2.24
-0.25 2.88 1.72
0 2.45 1.56
+0.25 1.92 1.43
+0.75 1.52 1.18
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.22 1.05
+2.00 1.05 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.90 4.55
-1.50 6.60 3.50
-1.25 6.15 3.20
-1.00 5.65 2.83
-0.75 3.84 2.24
-0.25 2.69 1.72
0 2.38 1.52
+0.25 1.92 1.37
+0.75 1.52 1.18
+1.00 1.33 1.08
+1.25 1.26 1.06
+1.50 1.22 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.95 2.31
-0.50 3.36 2.02
-0.25 2.96 1.76
0 2.57 1.51
+0.25 2.07 1.39
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.61 1.25
Primary Bets
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