Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sichuan Jiuniu
Oct 09, 2026 - 11:35
1.11 1.78
Henan Jianye
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sichuan Jiuniu opened at -0.25 against Henan Jianye in the Super League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.63
Sichuan Jiuniu +0.63

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Sichuan Jiuniu -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.88
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.88 AH points more toward Henan Jianye than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Henan Jianye +0.25
@ 1.96
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.88
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.37
Price Advantage
+43.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.87 -0.25 2.46 / 1.87 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.66 / 1.96 -0.25 2.66 / 1.96 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.59 / 1.87 -0.25 2.59 / 1.87 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.55 / 1.91 -0.25 2.55 / 1.91 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.63
xG 1.11 / 1.78 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.66
Sichuan Jiuniu @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.74
Sichuan Jiuniu @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.66 vs 3.74
Market price is 28.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.95 5.29
-1.50 5.95 4.10
-1.25 5.50 3.70
-1.00 5.05 3.28
-0.75 3.50 2.49
-0.25 2.59 1.87
0 2.22 1.68
+0.25 1.77 1.51
+0.75 1.42 1.22
+1.00 1.25 1.10
+1.25 1.20 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.55 1.91
+0.25 1.83 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.00 5.30
-1.50 5.95 4.10
-1.25 5.50 3.70
-1.00 5.05 3.28
-0.75 3.50 2.49
-0.25 2.46 1.87
0 2.15 1.63
+0.25 1.77 1.44
+0.75 1.42 1.22
+1.00 1.25 1.10
+1.25 1.20 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.80 2.64
-0.50 3.04 2.24
-0.25 2.66 1.96
0 2.26 1.64
+0.25 1.88 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.37
+0.75 1.48 1.26
Primary Bets
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