Avai vs Ceara Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Avai
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.52 0.75
Ceara
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Avai opened at 0 against Ceara in the Serie B. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.71
Avai -0.71

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Avai 0
Model–Market Gap
0.71
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.71 AH points more toward Avai than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Avai 0
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.71
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.33
Price Advantage
+45.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.86 / 1.85 0 1.86 / 1.86 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.93 / 1.90 0 1.93 / 1.91 — 0
1xBet 0 1.86 / 1.85 0 1.86 / 1.86 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.62 / 1.62 +0.25 1.62 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.71
xG 1.52 / 0.75 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Avai @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.33
Avai @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 1.33
Market price is 45.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 6.95
-1.50 5.30 5.30
-1.25 4.85 4.85
-1.00 4.40 4.40
-0.75 3.05 3.05
-0.25 2.20 2.15
0 1.86 1.86
+0.25 1.57 1.61
+0.75 1.29 1.28
+1.00 1.14 1.14
+1.25 1.11 1.11
+1.50 1.09 1.09
+1.75 1.04 1.04

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.62 2.60
-0.25 2.27 2.25
+0.25 1.62 1.62
+0.50 1.47 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 6.95
-1.50 5.30 5.30
-1.25 4.85 4.85
-1.00 4.40 4.40
-0.75 3.05 3.05
-0.25 2.15 2.15
0 1.86 1.86
+0.25 1.57 1.57
+0.75 1.28 1.28
+1.00 1.14 1.14
+1.25 1.11 1.11
+1.50 1.09 1.09
+1.75 1.04 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.84 4.82
-0.75 3.36 3.34
-0.50 2.70 2.69
-0.25 2.31 2.30
0 1.93 1.91
+0.25 1.63 1.62
+0.50 1.47 1.47
+0.75 1.32 1.32
+1.00 1.18 1.18
Primary Bets
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