Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Athletic Club
Oct 01, 2026 - 23:30
1.04 1.37
Sport Recife
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Athletic Club opened at 0 against Sport Recife in the Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Athletic Club from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
Athletic Club +0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Athletic Club -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.54
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.54 AH points more toward Sport Recife than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sport Recife +0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.54
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.49
Price Advantage
+94.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.77 / 1.95 -0.25 1.84 / 2.58 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.93 / 1.91 -0.25 1.97 / 2.90 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 1.95 / 2.85 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.77 / 1.95 -0.25 1.88 / 2.58 — -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.57 / 1.67 -0.25 1.95 / 2.67 — -0.50
BetVictor 0 1.75 / 1.93 -0.25 1.86 / 2.70 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
xG 1.04 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.97
Athletic Club @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.03
Athletic Club @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.97 vs 3.03
Market price is 35.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 10.00
-1.75 5.94 9.00
-1.50 4.50 7.10
-1.25 4.04 6.55
-1.00 3.50 6.00
-0.75 2.56 3.85
-0.25 1.88 2.58
0 1.59 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.83
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.25 1.05 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 5.90
-1.25 4.00 5.50
-1.00 3.55 7.00
-0.75 2.68 4.40
-0.50 2.20 3.45
-0.25 1.95 2.85
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.40 1.85
+0.50 1.30 1.65
+0.75 1.20 1.45
+1.00 1.10 1.27
+1.25 1.15 1.23
+1.50 1.13 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 2.75
-0.25 1.86 2.70
0 1.55 2.25
+0.25 1.39 1.81
+0.50 1.38 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.80
-0.25 1.95 2.67
+0.25 1.45 1.83
+0.50 1.42 1.62

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.95 9.00
-1.50 4.50 7.10
-1.25 4.05 6.55
-1.00 3.50 6.00
-0.75 2.56 3.85
-0.25 1.84 2.58
0 1.59 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.79
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.06 1.22
+1.25 1.05 1.17
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.86 5.08
-0.75 2.81 4.40
-0.50 2.31 3.38
-0.25 1.97 2.90
0 1.62 2.40
+0.25 1.44 1.91
+0.50 1.34 1.66
+0.75 1.23 1.47
+1.00 1.19 1.28
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