Ceara vs Novorizontino Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ceara
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Novorizontino
Kick-off 23:30 Stadium Estadio Castelão

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ceara opened at 0 against Novorizontino in the Serie B. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.79
Ceara +0.79

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.91 / 1.75
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ceara 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.79
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.79 AH points more toward Novorizontino than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Novorizontino 0
@ 1.85
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.79
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.34
Price Advantage
+38.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:58
Opening
0
20:43
Last Pre-Match
0
23:29
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.92 / 1.81 0 1.94 / 1.78 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.97 / 1.87 0 2.04 / 1.85 0 0
Bet365 0 1.88 / 1.92 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 0
1xBet 0 1.92 / 1.81 0 1.94 / 1.78 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.65 / 1.62 +0.25 1.67 / 1.60 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.92 / 1.76 0 1.93 / 1.75 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 7.17
-1.50 5.80 5.10
-1.25 5.30 4.64
-1.00 4.80 4.20
-0.75 3.28 2.92
-0.25 2.30 2.07
0 1.94 1.78
+0.25 1.62 1.56
+0.75 1.31 1.25
+1.00 1.16 1.12
+1.25 1.12 1.09
+1.50 1.10 1.07
+1.75 1.05 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 5.75 4.65
-1.00 5.25 4.25
-0.75 3.45 3.00
-0.50 2.75 2.42
0 2.02 1.78
+0.50 1.52 1.42
+0.75 1.38 1.30
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.18 1.14

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.67 2.44
-0.25 2.31 2.10
0 1.93 1.75
+0.25 1.63 1.52
+0.50 1.47 1.40

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.70 2.50
-0.25 2.32 2.18
+0.25 1.67 1.60
+0.50 1.52 1.45

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 6.75
-1.50 5.80 5.10
-1.25 5.30 4.65
-1.00 4.80 4.15
-0.75 3.28 2.92
-0.25 2.25 2.07
0 1.94 1.78
+0.25 1.62 1.52
+0.75 1.31 1.25
+1.00 1.16 1.11
+1.25 1.12 1.09
+1.50 1.10 1.07
+1.75 1.04 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.25 4.61
-0.75 3.58 3.21
-0.50 2.86 2.59
-0.25 2.45 2.22
0 2.04 1.85
+0.25 1.71 1.60
+0.50 1.54 1.46
+0.75 1.37 1.31
+1.00 1.22 1.18
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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