São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

São Bernardo
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Botafogo SP
Kick-off 22:30 Stadium Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

São Bernardo opened at 0 against Botafogo SP in the Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward São Bernardo from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 9 valid books, with 44% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.28
São Bernardo -0.28

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 0.94
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
São Bernardo -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 10 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.03
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.03 AH points more toward São Bernardo than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 9 valid books · 44% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:58
Opening
0
20:44
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.60 / 2.25 0 1.67 / 2.15 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.56 / 2.31 -0.25 1.98 / 2.55 — -0.25
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.07 / 1.17 +1.50 1.07 / 1.17 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.41 / 1.89 0 1.69 / 2.25 — -0.25
Bet365 0 1.58 / 2.35 0 1.75 / 2.05 — 0
1xBet 0 1.56 / 2.31 -0.25 2.03 / 2.55 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.20 / 2.90 -0.50 2.30 / 2.90 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 2.82 -0.25 2.07 / 2.50 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.31 / 1.59 -0.50 2.22 / 3.15 — -1.00
BetVictor 0 1.54 / 2.26 -0.25 2.01 / 2.48 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.67 2.15

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.54 9.30
-1.50 4.95 6.95
-1.25 4.50 6.40
-1.00 4.00 5.90
-0.75 2.85 3.83
-0.25 2.03 2.55
0 1.66 2.13
+0.25 1.42 1.73
+0.75 1.18 1.33
+1.00 1.07 1.17
+1.25 1.05 1.13
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 6.60
-1.25 5.25 6.00
-1.00 4.50 5.50
-0.75 3.10 3.55
-0.50 2.50 2.85
-0.25 2.15 2.42
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.52 1.68
+0.50 1.40 1.50
+0.75 1.27 1.35
+1.00 1.15 1.19
+1.25 1.12 1.16
+1.50 1.11 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.01 2.48
0 1.66 2.05
+0.25 1.45 1.69

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.42 2.92
-0.25 2.07 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.72
+0.50 1.39 1.55

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 13.00
-1.50 4.50 7.50
+1.50 1.07 1.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 9.30
-1.50 4.95 6.95
-1.25 4.50 6.40
-1.00 4.00 5.90
-0.75 2.85 3.84
-0.25 1.98 2.55
0 1.66 2.13
+0.25 1.42 1.69
+0.75 1.19 1.33
+1.00 1.07 1.17
+1.25 1.05 1.13
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.09 4.35
-0.50 2.52 3.30
-0.25 2.12 2.79
0 1.69 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.79
+0.50 1.36 1.57
+0.75 1.24 1.40

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.00
-0.50 2.22 3.15
+0.50 1.31 1.59
+1.50 1.07 1.16

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 6.00
-0.50 2.30 2.90
+0.50 1.34 1.52
+1.50 1.08 1.14
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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