Yangpyeong vs Ulsan Citizen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Yangpyeong
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Ulsan Citizen
Kick-off 05:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Yangpyeong opened at 0 against Ulsan Citizen in the K3 League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Yangpyeong -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.40 / 1.20
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Yangpyeong 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Yangpyeong than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Yangpyeong 0
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+8.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
0
04:26
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.86 / 1.80 0 1.86 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.93 / 1.85 0 1.90 / 1.92 — 0
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 0 1.92 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet 0 1.86 / 1.80 0 1.86 / 1.80 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.55 / 2.45 -0.50 2.50 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.84 / 1.83 0 1.84 / 1.83 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.60 9.40
-1.75 7.60 8.00
-1.50 5.60 5.30
-1.25 5.09 4.80
-1.00 4.55 4.30
-0.75 3.08 2.97
-0.25 2.19 2.10
0 1.86 1.80
+0.25 1.59 1.57
+0.75 1.30 1.28
+1.00 1.15 1.13
+1.25 1.12 1.10
+1.50 1.09 1.08
+1.75 1.04 1.03
+2.00 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.92 1.88

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 2.51
-0.25 2.19 2.17
0 1.84 1.83
+0.25 1.59 1.58
+0.50 1.45 1.44

Betano Main +0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.50 2.47
+0.50 1.50 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.60 7.10
-1.50 5.60 5.30
-1.25 5.10 4.80
-1.00 4.55 4.30
-0.75 3.08 2.97
-0.25 2.17 2.10
0 1.86 1.80
+0.25 1.59 1.55
+0.75 1.30 1.28
+1.00 1.15 1.13
+1.25 1.11 1.10
+1.50 1.09 1.08
+1.75 1.04 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.03 3.08
-0.50 2.49 2.52
-0.25 2.21 2.23
0 1.90 1.92
+0.25 1.65 1.66
+0.50 1.50 1.51
+0.75 1.35 1.36
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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