Changwon City vs Pocheon Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Changwon City
Oct 10, 2026 - 05:00
1.32 1.28
Pocheon
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Changwon City opened at -0.25 against Pocheon in the K3 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Changwon City -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Pocheon than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Changwon City -0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+37.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.14 / 1.62 -0.25 3.04 / 1.68 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.70 / 1.91 -0.50 3.10 / 2.00 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 3.17 / 1.62 -0.25 3.06 / 1.68 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.04
Changwon City @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Changwon City @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.04 vs 2.30
Market price is 32.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.80 3.86
-1.25 8.30 3.42
-1.00 7.70 2.97
-0.75 4.65 2.30
-0.25 3.06 1.68
0 2.56 1.42
+0.25 1.96 1.30
+0.75 1.51 1.12
+1.00 1.30 1.03
+1.25 1.23 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.80 3.86
-1.25 8.30 3.42
-1.00 7.70 2.97
-0.75 4.65 2.28
-0.25 3.04 1.68
0 2.56 1.42
+0.25 1.96 1.29
+0.75 1.50 1.12
+1.00 1.30 1.03
+1.25 1.23 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.00
-0.25 3.16 1.71
0 2.68 1.43
+0.25 2.08 1.32
+0.50 1.80 1.33
Primary Bets
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