Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Nõmme United II
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
FCI Levadia II
Kick-off 15:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Nõmme United II opened at 0 against FCI Levadia II in the Esiliiga A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Nõmme United II from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Nõmme United II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward FCI Levadia II than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
FCI Levadia II +0.25
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+15.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
0
12:33
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.24 / 1.88 -0.25 2.24 / 1.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.85 / 1.51 +0.25 1.85 / 1.52 — 0
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 -0.25 1.98 / 1.92 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.70 / 2.03 -0.25 2.26 / 1.88 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.10 5.80
-2.00 7.80 5.80
-1.50 4.45 3.50
-1.00 3.76 2.88
-0.75 2.92 2.38
-0.25 2.26 1.88
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.75 1.53
+0.75 1.46 1.31
+1.00 1.32 1.19
+1.50 1.22 1.14
+2.00 1.07 1.02
+2.50 1.09 1.08

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.98 1.92
0 1.85 1.95
+0.25 1.88 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.80 5.80
-1.50 4.45 3.50
-1.00 3.76 2.88
-0.75 2.92 2.38
-0.25 2.24 1.88
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.75 1.52
+0.75 1.46 1.31
+1.00 1.32 1.19
+1.50 1.22 1.14
+2.00 1.07 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.98 2.71
-0.75 2.47 2.27
-0.50 2.51 2.03
-0.25 2.29 1.85
0 2.08 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.52
+0.50 1.68 1.43
+0.75 1.53 1.45
+1.00 1.37 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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