BFC Daugavpils vs Auda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

BFC Daugavpils
Oct 19, 2026 - 15:00
1.34 1.26
Auda
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

BFC Daugavpils opened at -0.25 against Auda in the Virsliga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
BFC Daugavpils -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Auda than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
BFC Daugavpils -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.24
Price Advantage
+33.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.78 / 1.68 -0.25 2.78 / 1.68 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.81 / 1.68 -0.25 2.81 / 1.68 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.78
BFC Daugavpils @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
BFC Daugavpils @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.78 vs 2.24
Market price is 24.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.20 3.50
-1.25 6.74 3.14
-1.00 6.20 2.78
-0.75 4.10 2.21
-0.25 2.81 1.68
0 2.44 1.46
+0.25 1.96 1.35
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.34 1.06
+1.25 1.27 1.04
+1.50 1.22 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.45
-1.25 6.60 3.10
-1.00 6.25 2.75
-0.75 4.15 2.25
-0.50 3.30 1.98
-0.25 3.00 1.72
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.08 1.38
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.62 1.22
+1.00 1.42 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.11
+1.50 1.30 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.50 4.55
-1.50 7.20 3.50
-1.25 6.75 3.14
-1.00 6.20 2.78
-0.75 4.10 2.21
-0.25 2.78 1.68
0 2.44 1.46
+0.25 1.96 1.34
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.34 1.06
+1.25 1.27 1.04
+1.50 1.22 1.03
Primary Bets
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