Grotta vs Njardvik Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Grotta
Final Score
1 – 4
(HT 1-4)
Njardvik
Kick-off 19:15

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Grotta opened at -0.75 against Njardvik in the 1. Deild. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.50 points toward Njardvik from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Grotta +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.20 / 1.40
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Grotta -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Njardvik than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Grotta -0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.70
Price Advantage
+14.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.75 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:08
Opening
-0.75
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 4.10 / 2.02 -0.25 2.78 / 1.64 — +0.50
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.98 / 1.68 -0.25 2.96 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 3.45 / 1.92 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — +0.25
1xBet -0.75 4.12 / 2.04 -0.25 2.80 / 1.66 — +0.50
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.50 5.20
-1.75 8.30 3.84
-1.50 6.40 3.08
-1.25 5.96 2.84
-1.00 5.55 2.49
-0.75 3.94 2.10
-0.25 2.80 1.66
0 2.50 1.45
+0.25 2.05 1.35
+0.75 1.61 1.18
+1.00 1.42 1.08
+1.25 1.33 1.07
+1.50 1.28 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.10
-1.25 6.40 2.75
-1.00 6.00 2.50
-0.75 4.25 2.10
-0.50 3.45 1.90
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.90 1.30
+0.75 1.70 1.21
+1.00 1.50 1.12
+1.25 1.42 1.12
+1.50 1.35 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 3.84
-1.50 6.40 3.08
-1.25 5.95 2.83
-1.00 5.55 2.49
-0.75 3.92 2.08
-0.25 2.78 1.64
0 2.50 1.45
+0.25 2.02 1.34
+0.75 1.60 1.18
+1.00 1.42 1.08
+1.25 1.33 1.07
+1.50 1.28 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.96 1.72
0 2.60 1.49
+0.25 2.15 1.39
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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